Market Newsletter on 06.04.2023

FORECAST FOR THE DAY
RATE USD/VND

USD/VND RATE TRENDING

Market sentiment:

Domestically: The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that according to an estimate, Vietnam's cashew exports in March 2023 reached 60,000 tons, worth 355 million USD, up 75% in volume and 79 .5% in value compared to February 2023, compared with March 2022, an increase of 50.4% in volume and 48.6% increase in value. In the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam's cashew exports were estimated at 122 thousand tons, worth 708 million USD, up 16.6% in volume and 14.2% in value over the same period in 2022.

World: The dollar rose slightly on Thursday morning but not far from the recent 2-month low as the market awaits the important US jobs data released on Friday this week. affect the policy direction of the Fed. Similar to manufacturing activity, last night's PMI report continued to show weakness in the US service sector in March due to cooling demand. Finance and insurance, wholesale trade and retail trade were the sectors that reported declines. A flurry of weaker economic data has added to fears of an impending recession in the world's largest economy, curtailing risk appetite and driving markets to safe-haven assets. whole.

This morning's Caixin Services PMI data also eased some doubts about the resilience of China's economy, which has been weighed down by weakness from global commodity demand and persistent inflationary pressures. . China's service activity has risen to a high
2 and a half years on the back of a strong increase in new orders, although business confidence across the industry fell to a three-month low. This caused the USD/CNY exchange rate in the international market to drop slightly but the pair recovered to 6,8882. A break above the critical 6.9 resistance level will help establish a fresh rally towards the 200-day moving average at 6.94.

TRENDING CURRENCY pairs
USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD exchange rate gained slightly for the second consecutive session while the market was waiting for the US and Canadian jobs data later this week. Canada's March jobs report is expected to show the economy added 12,000 jobs while in the US data released on Friday is forecast with a lower-than-expected result.

Data released yesterday showed that Canada recorded a lower-than-expected trade surplus of CAD 422 million ($313 million) in February, as both exports and imports recorded wide-ranging declines. . Crude oil, one of Canada's main exports, fell 0.1% to $80.61 a barrel as the market weighed the worsening global economic outlook despite US crude inventories. is declining and OPEC+ producers plan to cut production in May.

The market is assessing that there is an 83% chance that the Central Bank of Canada will not raise interest rates at its meeting on April 12. If the US jobs report on Friday this week disappoints the market, it is likely that the USD will continue to weaken again, bringing the USD/CAD exchange rate down to the 1.3383 - 1.3406 zone. The nearest resistance level of this currency pair is at 1.3502.