Market Newsletter on 04.04.2023

FORECAST FOR THE DAY
RATE USD/VND

USD/VND PRICE TREND

Market sentiment:

Domestically: USD/VND exchange rate was stable around 23,450 - 23,480 this morning but the downtrend is expected to reappear soon. The supporting factor is the fact that the USD is losing its upward momentum on a global scale while many observed USD supply will return to the domestic market this April.

World: The USD Index reverses gains established last Friday, dropping nearly 0.7% on the first day of the week with the US manufacturing PMI data showing negative signals. A survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that US manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in nearly three years as new orders continued to decline. Specifically, the US manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest level since May 2020, from  47.7 in February while the previous forecast was at 47.5. Wednesday's service-sector PMI will be more important to the Fed ahead of Friday's jobs report.

The production cuts proposed by Saudi Arabia sent crude oil prices up 6.3% on the first day of the week, the strongest daily increase in more than a year. But with the oil market facing a host of challenges, including the possibility of a recession in the United States, only the most optimistic forecasters expect oil prices to return to the 100s. USD/barrel this year. The benchmark Brent oil price is currently trading at $85.3 a barrel, lower than a month ago even after a strong first day of the week and well below the closing high of the pandemic period. The recent Covid-19 epidemic was more than 125 USD/barrel in March 2022. The scenario for oil prices to keep rising depends on many factors such as: the extent to which producers actually comply with the cut quotas, the state of supply from medium-sized exporting countries, demand from China, and so on. Countries and risks in the banking system recently in the US and Europe.