Market Highlight 9.12.2024

According to data released by the U.S Department of Labor on Friday evening, Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 227.000 jobs in November, reflecting solid growth in line with prior forecasts. The recovery of the U.S labor market last month was bolstered by the resolution of disruptions caused by 2 major hurricanes and worker strikes. In November, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4,1% to 4,2%, while average hourly earnings increased by 4% year-on-year. However, the trajectory of the U.S labor market over the next 4 years is expected to become more complex, largely dependent on the extent to which President-elect Donald Trump tightens immigration policies. The surge in immigration since 2021 has provided a crucial labor supply for the world’s largest economy, but this source could face significant reductions next year. According to projections from JPMorgan Chase, the U.S labor market is expected to add only 113.000 jobs per month in 2025, compared to approximately 180.000 jobs per month this year, with the unemployment rate reaching 4,4% by the end of 2025.

The USD Index rose by over 0,3% by the close of trading on Friday following the release of U.S employment data. Upcoming reports on U.S consumer and producer inflation for November are expected to shed light on current price pressures ahead of the Federal Reserve’s critical policy meeting next week. Market expectations for a 0,25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Thursday morning (December 19) have risen from 70% to 85%. Domestically, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate edged up by 15 VND over the past week, closing at 25.385 on Friday. The exchange rate is projected to trade within the 25.350 - 25.400 range as the market awaits significant U.S economic data this week and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.

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