Market Highlight 31.03.2025

The USD weakened on Friday, slipping 0,26% amid growing concerns over the outlook for U.S economic growth ahead of President Donald Trump’s scheduled announcement on reciprocal tariffs on April 2. The most notable data last week showed U.S personal consumption rose by 0,4% in February following a 0,3% decline in January, but still fell short of the 0,5% forecast. Meanwhile, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0,4% in February - its highest monthly gain since January 2024. Inflationary pressure is expected to become more apparent in the upcoming second quarter, as several rounds of tariff increases on imported goods implemented by the U.S government earlier this year begin to take effect.

At the same time, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index - a key gauge of public perception on economic conditions - fell sharply to 57 in March from 64,7 in February, marking the lowest level since 2022. The report reinforced a recent string of surveys indicating a significant deterioration in sentiment among both U.S consumers and businesses during the first quarter of 2025. Uncertainty over the trajectory of trade policy, alongside federal workforce reductions, tighter immigration controls, and cuts in public spending under the Trump administration, have contributed to heightened anxiety across households and firms. Morgan Stanley now projects U.S GDP will grow by just 0,4% in Q1 2025, while Goldman Sachs has downgraded its full-year growth forecast to 0,6%, from 1% previously.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate continued to trade within a narrow band around 25.580 last Friday, recording a weekly decline of approximately 40 VND. The highly unpredictable nature of the upcoming reciprocal tariffs announcement by the U.S government - expected on Wednesday - may significantly influence investor sentiment across financial markets. The exchange rate is forecast to fluctuate within the 25.550 - 25.650 range in today’s session.

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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn