Market Highlight 30.06.2026

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday night that the ECB’s decision to raise its policy rate in June was based on its forecasts rather than a pre-emptive move aimed at preventing inflation risks from spiraling out of control. At its policy meeting in early June, the ECB raised interest rates for the first time in nearly 3 years, by 0,25%, to 2,25%. Policymakers assessed that the recent increase in energy prices caused by the Iran war had significantly affected inflation in Europe. Inflation in the region has exceeded the ECB’s 2% target since March. However, energy prices have gradually declined throughout June following the agreement to end the conflict between the U.S and Iran. Over the past week, oil prices have returned to pre-war levels, prompting discussion among economists over whether the European Central Bank tightened policy too quickly. Lagarde noted that the ECB can currently raise interest rates to address inflation without worrying that monetary tightening will become a source of stress for the financial system.

The USD weakened on Monday but remained close to its 13-month high. This was supported by optimism over U.S economic growth, the outlook for Federal Reserve rate hikes, and the boom in AI-driven investment activity, which has pushed U.S equity markets to set new record highs. The JPY also weakened last night to its lowest level against the USD since 1986, at 161,98.

Domestically, interbank USD/VND maintained its downward momentum at the start of this week, falling to 26.285 under pressure from quarter-end VND liquidity demand. The effective daily ceiling was raised by a further VND 7 to 26.461.

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