Market Highlight 30.06.2025

  With just 10 days remaining until President Donald Trump’s country-specific reciprocal tariffs are set to come back into force on July 9, it appears increasingly unlikely that the White House will achieve its ambition of a comprehensive trade overhaul within the three-month suspension period. In recent months, the U.S administration had set a goal of securing “90 deals in 90 days” with its trading partners. However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated last Thursday that only the first 10 agreements with major economies will be finalized by July 9. Negotiation updates indicate that the U.S is nearing deals with a handful of countries, including Taiwan and Indonesia, while talks with Vietnam and South Korea are also progressing at an accelerated pace. President Trump himself has repeatedly hinted at an agreement with India, following high-level meetings in Washington last week aimed at breaking a deadlock over key issues. Both the United States and the European Union have recently expressed greater optimism about reaching a trade accord. For countries that fail to conclude an agreement by the deadline, the new tariffs are likely to exceed the 10% base rate that has been in place during the negotiation window.
  The USD Index fell by 0,1% last Friday after President Trump announced that the United States would end trade talks with Canada and suggested he might consider striking Iran again if nuclear issues remain unresolved. Meanwhile, separate data showed that U.S consumer spending unexpectedly declined in May as the boost from pre-tariff stockpiling tapered off. Domestically, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate posted its first weekly decline (down 40 VND) after five consecutive weeks of gains. This adjustment pressure could see the exchange rate move closer to the 26.000 level during the first week of July.

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