Market Highlight 29.07.2026

U.S consumer confidence fell in July as people’s expectations for current business conditions and the labor market deteriorated. The Conference Board’s confidence index, released last night, fell by 1,4 points to 90,8, the lowest level since 2021. Higher gasoline and food prices have partly weighed on U.S household spending, raising concerns over persistent inflation and increasingly expensive living costs. Meanwhile, hiring activity has shown signs of slowing after improving earlier this year. However, U.S households have continued to spend at elevated levels despite concerns over living costs and the labor market. U.S retail sales rose for a fifth consecutive month in June, contributing to economic growth in Q2. The Department of Commerce is expected to release its report on U.S Q2 gross domestic product, together with June consumer spending, income, and inflation data, on Thursday night this week.

The USD Index corrected lower by around 0,12% yesterday but remained close to a one-month high as the market monitored the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike early tomorrow morning. Oil prices have risen sharply again this month, leading the market to price in a nearly 40% probability that the FED may raise interest rates by another 0,25% at the July meeting, up from 20% last week, while the probability of a rate hike in September is close to 95%. Both the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their meetings on Thursday and Friday, but with warnings over rising inflation.

Interbank USD/VND rebounded to 26.340 yesterday, following the strengthening of the USD in global markets. The daily ceiling was raised by a further VND 14 to 26.571.

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