Market Highlight 29.06.2026

Recent signals from the Federal Reserve show that the outlook for rate hikes this year is becoming increasingly likely. 9 out of 19 FOMC members forecast at least one rate hike by year-end, compared with no projected hikes in March. FED Chair Kevin Warsh also emphasized the Central Bank’s commitment to price stability and to bringing inflation back to the 2% target. This has prompted the market to rapidly increase expectations for a rate hike as early as September, although that probability declined after the U.S PCE inflation data released on Thursday night came broadly in line with expectations, supported by easing oil prices.

Against this backdrop, the U.S nonfarm payrolls report for June, which will be released this Thursday as markets are closed on Friday for the U.S Independence Day holiday, could carry particular significance. A stronger-than-expected reading would further reinforce recent signals of a recovery in the world’s largest economy and increase the prospect of rate hikes in the coming period. Although data earlier this year showed signs of weakness in the U.S labor market, the latest figures have indicated some improvement, with job growth forecast at 160.000, not significantly different from the 172.000 recorded in May. Before the nonfarm payrolls release, other notable reports on the health of the U.S labor market will include May JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ADP private-sector employment for June on Wednesday, and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday.

As of now, the USD Index has risen 3% in 2026, compared with a decline of around 10% last year due to U.S tariff policy. Domestically, interbank USD/VND edged lower by VND 15 and closed at 26.300 at the end of last week.

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