Market Highlight 28.07.2026

China said the U.S has committed to keeping tariffs on its goods at 20%. The U.S Department of Commerce first announced this commitment on Monday, saying that Washington had made the pledge during bilateral trade negotiations. With the current tariff rate at 12,5%, there is only around 7,5% of room for additional tariff increases before reaching the stated ceiling. The U.S is currently conducting a separate investigation into China, citing allegations of excess production capacity in its industrial sector. The outcome of this investigation could lead to further tariff increases. Under the terms of the agreement reached in Malaysia last October, the effective tariff rate on imports from China into the U.S was around 30%, and was later reduced after some tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court. In May, China signaled that it would accept some U.S tariff increases up to the level negotiated last year and would continue negotiations to extend the trade truce.

The USD Index posted its third consecutive daily gain (+0,05%) ahead of the start of the FED’s July policy meeting. Global oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping by 7,78 USD (-8%) to 89 USD/barrel after the U.S and Iranian militaries temporarily halted their mutual attacks, which had lasted for the past two weeks. With FED Chair Kevin Warsh giving very few signals on the policy outlook, the market is pricing in a probability of nearly 35% that the FED will raise interest rates by 0,25% at the July meeting. This week will also feature two important U.S reports on Q2 GDP and the core PCE inflation index.

Interbank USD/VND rose by nearly VND 10 yesterday and traded at 26.328 by the end of the day. The effective daily ceiling also increased by a further VND 11 to 26.557.

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