Market Highlight 27.07.2026

Global trade flows increased for a second consecutive month in May, a positive signal for economic recovery before the Middle East conflict escalated again and before trade was challenged by a new wave of U.S tariff hikes. According to data released on Friday by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the volume of goods transported across national borders increased by more than 1% from April (+0,3% MoM). This resilience partly reflects the boom in investment in artificial intelligence-related sectors, which has led to a strong increase in demand for semiconductors and data center equipment. Exports from China rose by 2,6% from the previous month, while Japan’s overseas sales increased by 4%, and imports into the U.S rose by 2,3%. However, the trade outlook for the remaining months of 2026 has become less optimistic due to a new wave of U.S tariff increases, with new tariff rates of 10% and 12% to be applied to imports from 60 countries. The U.S administration is also considering new tariffs on 16 countries deemed to have “excess production capacity.” These new measures would push the average tariff rate on U.S imports to 12,4%, from a low of 7,7% in May.

Federal Reserve officials will enter this week’s July policy meeting on Thursday against a backdrop of renewed inflation pressure, making the decision over whether to keep rates unchanged or raise interest rates more difficult. The market has also increased expectations for a FED rate hike at this week’s meeting to nearly 40%.

Interbank USD/VND closed the final trading day of last week around 26.325. The recovery momentum was maintained throughout the week, with the highest level recorded at 26.340.

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