Market Highlight 26.11.2025

Consumer confidence in the United States weakened and retail sales growth slowed in September as data pointed to restrained spending on tariff-affected goods such as vehicles, electronics, and apparel. Taken together, both new and revised figures suggest the U.S economy is heading into the most crucial shopping season of the year against the backdrop of a cooling labor market, persistent inflationary pressures, and signs that consumers are moderating their pace of spending. Specifically, the U.S Department of Commerce reported that retail sales rose 0,2% in September from the previous month, below economists’ expectations of a 0,3% increase. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s survey showed U.S consumer confidence falling to 88,7 in November from 95,5 in October, underperforming the forecast of 93,2. Consumer spending is the primary engine of the U.S economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of total output. Emerging signs of a softening labor market and prolonged high inflation are presenting Federal Reserve policymakers with difficult choices ahead of their meeting in two weeks. Members of the FED remain divided over whether to cut interest rates to support the labor market or to hold rates steady to rein in inflation.

The USD posted a sharp decline on Tuesday (-0,4%) after a series of mixed economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month (with an 80% probability). On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the U.S labor market is weak enough to justify an additional 0,25% rate cut in December. His stance was seen as broadly aligned with comments made last Friday by John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve.

Domestically, the interbank USD/VND exchange rate traded steadily around 26.370 - 26.380 yesterday. The rate is expected to remain around 26.350 today.

Please contact the nearest Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank's branch to receive information and consultancy if you are in need of making any foreign exchange and derivatives transactions.

Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank assumes no responsibility or liability for any purpose of reference or using the information provided by this newsletter.

Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn