Market Highlight 26.11.2024

According to the U.S International Trade Commission (USITC) report released in early November 2024, Vietnam is the 8th largest trading partner of the United States. Bilateral trade between the two nations reached $109,1 billion, marking a 20,13% increase compared to 2023 and accounting for 2,8% of the U.S’s total trade volume. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S totaled $99,9 billion (representing 4,13% of U.S imports, up 19,4%), while its imports from the U.S stood at $9,3 billion, an increase of 29,1% year-on-year. The trade surplus amounted to $90,6 billion, rising 51,1% compared to the same period in 2023. This robust growth outperformed many of Vietnam’s direct export competitors, including China, India, Thailand, and Malaysia. In 2023, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S experienced a sharp decline due to economic slowdown, inflation, restrained consumer spending, and high interest rates. However, during the first 3 quarters of 2024, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S have largely recovered, regaining a stable growth trajectory.

The USD Index fell nearly 0,7% yesterday from its two-year high of 108,07 as the U.S markets prepared for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday this week. The sole major economic releases scheduled for this week are tomorrow’s revised Q3 GDP figures and the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The USD is likely to weaken further this week following eight consecutive weeks of gains. Currently, the market anticipates a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate by 0,25% on December 19.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate remained stable within the 25.400 - 25.425 range during the start of this week, closing at 25.420. The USD’s signs of cooling have improved market sentiment in Vietnam, with expectations that the exchange rate could decline to below 25.400 by the end of the week.

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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn