Market Highlight 26.08.2026

Global trade flows rose sharply in June, supported by the boom in artificial intelligence-related investment despite disruptions caused by the Iran war. This suggests that the global economy has so far managed to withstand the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to data released on Tuesday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), the volume of goods transported across national borders increased by 2% from May, when trade volume had risen by 0,5%. Global trade volumes fell sharply in the first month of the U.S - Iran war but have since rebounded and surpassed February levels. However, overall trade activity in Q2 was broadly unchanged from Q1. Global trade also weathered the tariff volatility introduced by the U.S in 2025, with import-export volumes increasing by 4,2% over the year, accelerating significantly from 2,6% in 2024.

The increase in U.S demand for semiconductors and electronic equipment needed to build out data centers has been a key driver of this growth. In a study released earlier this month, economists at the Federal Reserve estimated that without the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom, U.S imports would have declined by 10% in 2025 due to higher tariffs, rather than increasing as they did. However, continued disruptions to goods transportation and the U.S Government’s imposition of new import tariffs are threatening to slow global trade flows in the second half of 2026.

Interbank USD/VND fell by nearly VND 60 yesterday to around 26.110 by late afternoon. The SBV continued to raise the central rate sharply by a further VND 15, lifting the effective daily ceiling on Tuesday to 26.895, up nearly 2% since the beginning of the year.

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