Market Highlight 26.06.2025

  The USD Index fell to 97,5 on Tuesday, marking its lowest level in a year, following reports that President D. Trump is considering appointing the next Federal Reserve Chair despite Jerome Powell still having approximately 11 months left in his current term. Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to implement immediate rate cuts, raising concerns over the FED’s policy independence. In a congressional testimony last night, Chair Powell defended the FED’s current policy stance, emphasizing that the Central bank should not rush into adjusting interest rates while it continues to assess the economic impact of the President’s policies - particularly how newly imposed tariffs on key trading partners could affect inflation. The dollar’s decline was also fueled by mounting expectations that the FED could begin lowering interest rates as early as September. At the same time, market attention has returned to ongoing trade negotiations ahead of the July 9 deadline set by the Trump administration, when reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to take effect. Uncertainty surrounding U.S tariff policy has been a major contributor to the dollar’s nearly 9% depreciation since the beginning of 2025.
  According to the latest data from the General Department of Customs under the Ministry of Finance, Vietnam’s total import-export turnover reached nearly USD 391 billion as of June 15 - an increase of 15,3% (equivalent to more than USD 51,8 billion) compared to the same period in 2024. The cumulative trade surplus stood at USD 4,84 billion. Export turnover amounted to USD 197,88 billion (+13,7%), while imports totaled USD 193,03 billion (+16,9%), representing a year-on-year increase of nearly USD 28 billion. The USD/VND interbank exchange rate remained stable around 26.150 on Tuesday, as upward momentum was capped by the dollar’s rapid global decline and the State Bank of Vietnam’s recent resumption of Treasury Bill issuance over the past two days. The exchange rate is forecast to continue trading within the 26.100 - 26.200 range today.

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