Market Highlight 26.02.2026

Global trade flows expanded faster in 2025 despite higher U.S tariffs, but are expected to slow this year as the impact of tariffs becomes more visible. However, the boom in AI-related investment could once again offset part of that headwind. According to data released on Wednesday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), the volume of goods shipped across national borders rose by 4,4% in 2025, up from 2,5% in 2024.

Immediately after U.S President D. Trump announced country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2, 2025, the World Trade Organization projected that trade flows would decline slightly in 2025. In practice, many of those tariffs were later reduced, while few U.S trading partners retaliated by raising their own duties. Chinese firms facing particularly steep tariffs found new buyers outside the U.S, while the surge in AI-related investment helped lift U.S imports from other parts of Asia. The WTO forecasts global merchandise trade growth of just 0,5% this year, while the IMF likewise expects global trade to slow. More recently, replacing country-specific tariff schedules with a uniform 10% rate would reduce the U.S effective average tariff from 14,1% to 10,4%. This shift could provide some support for global trade in the first half of this year.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate corrected lower by roughly 100 dong yesterday, easing to near 26.100 by the close. The central reference rate set for the day was 25.057, implying an effective ceiling rate of 26.309.

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