Market Highlight 26.01.2026

Business activity across the U.S and several major economies in Europe and Asia strengthened in the first month of 2026, with early signs of a recovery in export orders as the global economy gradually adapts to higher U.S tariffs. S&P Global data released on Friday showed that the PMI tracking activity among U.S manufacturers and service providers rose to 52,8 in January 2026 from 52,7 in December. Similar surveys also pointed to continued expansion in India, Japan and Australia. The global economy grew faster than expected in 2025, supported by a surge in U.S investment into artificial intelligence, which helped offset part of the drag from higher tariffs. However, both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) have warned that global growth could slow if tariffs rise again or if the AI boom loses momentum. Europe’s outlook remains broadly subdued, with GDP growth expected to lag behind the U.S and China. The euro area PMI was unchanged at 51,5 in January, weighed down by weaker activity in France, while growth accelerated in Germany and several other European economies.

The USD Index fell 0,83% last Friday and declined by nearly 2% over the past week amid rising global geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the JPY posted a sharp gain at the end of the week (+1,64%) after the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at its January meeting, while signs increased that the Japanese Government may be preparing to intervene in foreign-exchange markets to stabilise the currency.  

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate decisively moved below the key 26.250 support level and closed last Friday at 26.240 as demand for VND firmed again. The exchange rate is expected to extend its decline and test the 26.200 area during this week.

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