Market Highlight 25.12.2025

The global trading system is experiencing one of the most volatile years in its history as it heads toward 2026, a year expected to pose even greater challenges to stability and growth. Nevertheless, global merchandise trade held up relatively well in 2025, even as U.S President Donald Trump began erecting a tariff wall around the world’s largest economy. Beneath this headline resilience, however, lie significant underlying shifts: the United States recorded an 8% decline in import volumes, while imports into Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India all posted robust growth. President Trump’s repeated trade threats have been among the key factors driving these changes in global shipping and trade routes.

If 2025 was the year of tariffs, 2026 is widely expected to be the year when their effects begin to materialise more clearly in global trade flows, inflation, and economic growth. Economists are therefore turning their attention to several critical themes shaping trade in 2026, including the review of the USMCA trade agreement, potential shocks to global supply chains, and the risk of trade agreements unraveling due to weak enforcement mechanisms. Meanwhile, the forthcoming ruling by the U.S Supreme Court on the legality of the reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump stands out as one of the largest remaining uncertainties facing global trade.
In the interbank market, the USD/VND exchange rate at one point fell to 26.305 yesterday as demand for Vietnamese dong continued to rise toward year-end. The afternoon session saw additional VND liquidity support from the State Bank of Vietnam via USD swap transactions, allowing the exchange rate to rebound to 26.320. The market is expected to continue trading with modest fluctuations around the 26.300 level today.

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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

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