Market Highlight 25.05.2026

Global trade flows continued to expand rapidly in Q1/2026, driven by the boom in investment related to artificial intelligence. However, merchandise trade may slow in Q2 and in the quarters ahead as the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted a key shipping route, while higher energy prices could weaken demand for other products. According to data released on Friday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), the volume of goods transported across national borders in the first 3 months of the year was 3,5% higher than in the previous quarter. As in 2025, strong U.S demand for data-center-related goods and other AI-related investment continued to support global trade growth at the start of 2026. These products included servers, high-performance computing equipment, semiconductors, and components related to automation services.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has created a significant negative shock to trade in general and maritime shipping in particular. The United Nations forecasts that trade-flow growth will slow to only 1,5% - 2,5% this year, compared with 4,7% in 2025. According to the CPB, exports from advanced Asian economies excluding Japan rose 10,1% compared with Q4 last year, while exports from Japan increased 3% and exports from China rose 11,3%. Europe recorded a 1,2% decline in exports, while Latin America posted only a 0,6% increase.

Domestically, interbank USD/VND edged lower early last Friday but still closed the day at 26.360. Expectations that a peace agreement between the U.S and Iran could be announced this week have helped improve market sentiment, allowing the exchange rate to remain stable around 26.350.

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