Market Highlight 25.03.2026

Business activity across the United States, Europe, and parts of Asia slowed in March, weighed down by rising energy prices and renewed supply chain disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict. The decline in new orders points to more persistent downside risks should the conflict continue or escalate. In the U.S., S&P Global data showed the composite PMI falling to 51.4 in March from 51.9 in February, the lowest level in 11 months. The latest survey points to an unfavorable mix of moderating growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East. Input costs climbed sharply on the back of higher energy prices, pushing output charges to their highest level in more than three and a half years.    

Elevated energy and food prices are posing downside risks to the Euro-area economy. The European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that inflation could average 4.4% this year under a scenario where oil prices rise to $145 per barrel. Meanwhile, India’s manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace since October 2022, reflecting the country’s heavy reliance on energy imports transported through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route that has been largely disrupted amid the conflict in Iran.    

The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly on Tuesday after reports that Washington is deploying additional troops to the Middle East, even as diplomatic efforts continue. The Dollar Index has gained around 1.5% so far in March, putting it on track for its strongest monthly increase since October 2025, supported by safe-haven demand.     

Domestically, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate extended its upward momentum yesterday, hovering around 26,350. The official ceiling rate was also adjusted up by 20 VND to 26,364.

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