Market Highlight 25.02.2026

U.S economic data released last night showed consumer confidence edged up in February, but remained below the peak reached at end-2024. Specifically, a survey by research organization The Conference Board showed that the U.S Consumer Confidence Index rose from 89 to 91,2 points, above the previous forecast of 86,8 points. Information related to prices, inflation and the cost of goods remained among the top concerns for U.S consumers. A separate survey from the University of Michigan also showed that Americans’ assessment of the economy improved in February, but elevated prices continued to weigh on sentiment. The data were released after the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report - the FED’s preferred inflation gauge - showed a 0,4% increase in December. This PCE reading reinforced why many FED officials have become more cautious about the timing of the next rate cut, given the risk of adding pressure to inflation.

The JPY weakened (-0,7%) on Tuesday following reports that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had expressed concerns to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda about further interest-rate increases, reducing market expectations for the BOJ’s next rate hike. Markets are currently pricing in a BOJ policy-rate increase to 1% by end-June, with some even expecting the move as early as April amid rising concerns over inflation pressure and a weak yen. At present, the probability of a BOJ rate hike in April is 50%, while the probability of a hike in June is 65%.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate traded at 26.195 at yesterday’s close, up a further 80 dong from the opening level. The USD Index also recovered nearly 0,2% after two consecutive sessions of decline.

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