Market Highlight 24.11.2025

The division over interest-rate policy within the Federal Reserve has widened in recent weeks, as policymakers adopt increasingly divergent positions ahead of the December FOMC meeting - while Chair Jerome Powell has yet to offer any specific comment. Last Friday, New York FED President John Williams, often viewed as a proxy for the FED Chair, voiced support for an additional rate cut. Chair Powell himself has not made any remarks regarding the possibility of a further rate reduction since the FED’s most recent meeting on October 29. As the Central Bank attempts to balance its dual mandate - supporting a weakening labor market while maintaining control over inflation - the recent U.S Government shutdown, which delayed the release of key economic data, has further complicated efforts to reach consensus on policy priorities. Market expectations for a December rate cut have risen to nearly 45% at the start of this week.

Retail sales growth in the United States is expected to have slowed in September amid elevated prices and concerns about job-market stability. Forecasts suggest retail sales will rise 0,4%, following a 0,6% increase the previous month, with the delayed data set to be released this Tuesday after more than a month of postponement due to the Government shutdown. Additional important U.S data scheduled for release this week include Producer Price inflation, September durable goods orders, and weekly jobless claims. These reports will be published ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday - the biggest retail event of the year.

Domestically, the interbank USD/VND exchange rate eased back to 26.350 at the end of last week. The expected trading range for this week is around 26.300 - 26.350.

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