Market Highlight 24.03.2025

Recent U.S economic data has shown significant divergence, raising concerns over whether consumer sentiment - destabilized by President Donald Trump’s trade policies - might push the already sluggish U.S economy into a deeper recession. Surveys of household and business sentiment are signaling a marked downturn as the government continues to advance tariff policies and implement sharp federal spending cuts. However, official government data, such as employment and industrial output, suggests these fears - of stagflation or even recession - may be overstated. Last week, Federal Reserve policymakers lowered their 2025 U.S growth forecast to the lowest level since 2022, while the OECD warned that U.S trade policy is likely to slow economic activity globally. With more tariffs scheduled to be announced on April 2, market volatility may not yet be over. Markets will closely watch this week’s U.S PMI readings for manufacturing and services on Monday, along with Friday’s PCE inflation data.

The USD Index rose nearly 0,34% last Friday, marking a third consecutive day of gains and returning to the 104 level. After coming under pressure earlier this year amid concerns that trade policy could weigh heavily on U.S growth, the USD temporarily rebounded last week (+0,4%) following the Federal Reserve’s signal that it will not rush into further rate cuts. Domestically, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate climbed back above 25.600 during Friday’s session as strong demand for foreign currency persisted in the second half of March. The rate could challenge the 25.800 level this week if the USD continues to recover solidly in global markets.

Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank assumes no responsibility or liability for any purpose of reference or using the information provided by this newsletter.

Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn