Market Highlight 23.06.2025

   The USD extended its gains at the start of the week as markets sought shelter from rising geopolitical risks following a U.S airstrike on Iran. Volatility could intensify should Iran respond by blocking the Strait of Hormuz - a vital chokepoint through which one-third of global oil shipments pass - or by launching retaliatory strikes against the United States. While the dollar has appreciated by roughly 0,9% since the onset of the Middle East conflict, this increase remains modest in historical terms given the greenback’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset. Year-to-date, the USD is still down approximately 8,72%, largely due to President D. Trump’s trade and fiscal policies. This week, market attention will remain focused on the evolving U.S - Israel & Iran confrontation and U.S tariff policy, alongside key economic indicators including the manufacturing and services PMI and the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
   According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, as of 2025, Vietnam has signed or is negotiating 20 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), with 16 currently in effect - including several next-generation FTAs. These agreements have opened access to over 60 countries and territories, covering approximately 90% of global GDP. As a result, Vietnam’s export turnover has posted a growth rate exceeding 20%, with some markets surpassing 30% - well above the country’s average export growth. For 2025, the ministry has set an export growth target of around 12%, equivalent to roughly USD 450 billion.
  On the domestic front, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate set another all-time high last Friday at 26.145, driven by increasing USD demand from local businesses in the latter half of June. Given the latest escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, the dollar’s strength is expected to persist globally, and the interbank exchange rate may test the 26.200 level in the week ahead.

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