Market Highlight 23.04.2026

Japan’s trade activity continued to expand in March, but the outlook for the coming months remains highly uncertain because of the war in the Middle East. Specifically, according to Government data released on Wednesday, exports rose 11,7% YoY in March, extending the growth streak to a seventh consecutive month, well above the 4% increase in February and the 11% increase expected by the market. Imports rose 10,9%, slightly higher than the 10,3% increase recorded in the previous month. However, because the war between the U.S and Iran only began in late February, the March data do not yet fully capture the impact of disruptions to energy supplies and other essential goods that Japan imports from the Middle East.

Japan relies on the region for most of its oil needs and remains vulnerable to disruptions in shipping routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz. The impact of energy shortages is expected to become more visible from April, hurting the Japanese economy through multiple channels, including weaker economic activity and rising inflationary pressure. This could ultimately undermine the country’s recovery and further weaken the JPY. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0,75% at its next meeting on Tuesday next week, as policymakers assess geopolitical risks in deciding when to resume monetary tightening.

The USD Index posted a second consecutive daily gain (+0,2%) as the situation in Iran continued to show few positive signs. Domestically, interbank USD/VND edged lower on Wednesday and closed the day at 26.322.

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