Market Highlight 23.04.2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Tuesday evening that the sharp escalation of tariffs since the beginning of 2025 marks the onset of a new global economic era, one in which most economies are expected to grow at a slower pace than previously forecast. The United States is among the hardest hit, following the Trump administration’s imposition of historically high import duties. The IMF has downgraded its global growth projection for 2025 to just 2,8%, down from its earlier forecast of 3,3% - a revision larger than the one following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022. For 2026, global GDP growth is now projected at 3%, down from a previous estimate of 3,3%. The U.S economy is expected to bear significant losses, with 2025 growth downgraded to 1,8% from the 2,7% forecast issued in January. Growth for 2026 is projected at 1,7%. The report also warned that this global realignment may usher in an era in which the U.S dollar plays a less central role in the international financial system.

The USD index rebounded on Tuesday (+0,6%) after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he believes U.S-China trade tensions will begin to ease and reiterated that the U.S government’s objective is not to decouple the world’s two largest economies. Today, markets will closely watch the release of April’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for both the manufacturing and services sectors in the Eurozone and the U.S, as these will provide clearer insights into how escalating tariffs are affecting the economic activity of major economies. Domestically, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate surged nearly 100 dong on Tuesday, ending the session at 25.980. The rate continues to approach the key resistance level of 26.000 this week, buoyed by both external factors and strong domestic demand.

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