Market Highlight 23.03.2026

Although the message from the U.S Central Bank’s latest policy meeting continues to point to the possibility of another rate cut later this year, recent economic data are increasingly reinforcing the case that the FED may need to raise rates again to contain inflation. U.S inflation remains above the FED’s 2% target; notably, core PCE - the inflation gauge most closely referenced by the U.S Central Bank - has been holding at 3,1%, showing no meaningful cooling since late 2024. The sharp rise in global oil prices could push inflation even further away from target, as the end date of the war in Iran remains uncertain. Brent crude futures have risen by roughly 50% since the U.S and Israel launched strikes on Iran, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively near-closed and disrupting Middle East energy exports. The May Brent contract settled on Friday up 3,26% at 112,19 USD/bbl, the highest level since July 2022.

A similar degree of monetary-policy caution has been spreading globally over the past week. Australia’s Central Bank raised rates on Tuesday, while Japan signalled further increases in the near term (potentially as early as April). The Bank of England also struck a tone suggesting a shift towards tightening could materialise later this year, while Canada and the Euro area indicated that the current backdrop leaves both rate hikes and cuts on the table. The USD Index fell by nearly 1% last week as G7 currencies broadly rebounded against the USD following the release of these Central Bank policy signals.

Domestically, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate traded around the 26.300 area last Friday. The SBV raised the central reference rate by a further VND 13, lifting the effective ceiling rate for the day to 26.339.

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