Market Highlight 23.02.2026

President D. Trump said over the weekend that he would raise the global tariff rate to 15% to replace a number of tariffs that had been struck down by the U.S Supreme Court. Last Friday, the Supreme Court invalidated most of the tariffs Mr Trump imposed during his second term, rejecting the U.S Government’s argument that a 1977 law - the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) - -had implicitly authorised such measures. Later that day, Mr Trump criticised the ruling and announced a rise in the global tariff rate to 15% under a different authority - Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days. Raising the global tariff rate from 10% to 15% would align these tariffs with the terms of major trade agreements President D. Trump has signed with other countries. Agreements signed in 2025 with the European Union, Japan and South Korea apply a 15% tariff to most goods imported from those economies.

The USD Index rose on Friday evening after U.S economic data showed inflation running higher than expected, while fourth-quarter economic growth came in well below forecasts. The USD gained nearly 1% over the past week, marking its strongest weekly advance since November 2025. Meanwhile, the latest U.S Supreme Court ruling on President D. Trump’s tariff measures is expected to weaken the USD only in the short term. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 50% probability that the FED could begin cutting rates as early as June.

The interbank exchange rate traded steadily around 25.970 in the final trading session before the Lunar New Year holiday. The upward trend in the exchange rate is expected to receive stronger support in the final week of February, with an end-Q1 target of 26.300.

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