Market Highlight 22.04.2026

The USD Index rose to a one-week high on Tuesday night as concerns grew that reaching a ceasefire agreement in the war between the U.S and Iran could take longer than expected, implying more prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The USD had cooled in April as optimism about a ceasefire increased nearly two weeks ago, after having surged in the previous month on safe-haven demand triggered by the conflict. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, said in remarks last night that the U.S Central Bank needs structural changes, including a new approach to inflation control and an overhaul of communications. That could limit how openly FED policymakers express forward-looking views on monetary policy. The market is currently pricing in roughly a 30% chance that the FED will still deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of this year. 

U.S retail sales rose more strongly than expected in March as the war in Iran pushed gasoline prices sharply higher, resulting in a record increase in receipts at gasoline stations. Specifically, retail sales increased 1,7% in March, above the 1,4% forecast, supported by a record 15,5% jump in gasoline-station sales. However, economists remain concerned that growth could be affected in Q1 as higher gasoline prices weaken consumer spending in many other categories. Goldman Sachs raised its Q1 U.S GDP growth forecast by 0,5 percentage points to 3,3% in the preliminary estimate due next week, well above the 0,5% growth recorded in Q4/2025. 

Domestically, interbank USD/VND continued to trade within a narrow range of around 26.325 - 26.330 for most of yesterday’s session.

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