Market Highlight 2.12.2024
The USD Index declined by nearly 0,3% to 105,74 during the final trading session last week but recorded a monthly gain of approximately 1,8% in November following President Donald Trump’s re-election to a second term. Stronger-than-expected U.S economic data over the past two weeks has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve might slow the pace of its rate cuts as inflation gradually approaches the 2% target. The market currently estimates a 66% probability of a 0,25% rate cut by the FED at its December 17 - 18 meeting, but only a 17% likelihood of a similar move in January. With U.S stock markets repeatedly hitting new record highs, this week’s focus will be on the U.S nonfarm payrolls report for November, due Friday, to gauge the health of the world’s largest economy ahead of the FED’s December 19 meeting. FED Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to deliver a speech on Thursday, providing updates on global growth prospects amidst rising tariff risks.
As of the end of November, Vietnam’s total trade turnover was estimated at approximately $715 billion, up 15,3%, with a trade surplus exceeding $23 billion. The full-year trade turnover for 2024 is projected to reach $807,7 billion, the highest on record. FDI inflows have been a standout, placing Vietnam among the top 15 developing countries globally for FDI attraction. Specifically, in the first 11 months, Vietnam attracted $31 billion in FDI commitments, with $20,4 billion disbursed, representing a 7% increase and the highest level in several years.
The USD/VND interbank exchange rate closed last week at 25.360, marking an increase of over 50 VND in November. This also represents the second consecutive month of increases for the domestic exchange rate, though the pace of gains has significantly moderated compared to October. The exchange rate is forecast to edge higher today but remain below 25.400.
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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:
- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or
- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn