Market Highlight 21.11.2025

The U.S labor market in September showed stronger-than-expected job growth, adding 119.000 positions according to a report released last night after being delayed nearly 7 weeks due to the Government shutdown. However, the unemployment rate edged up to 4,4%, the highest in 4 years, as nearly half a million people entered the labor force. The long-awaited September nonfarm payrolls report offered the first official snapshot of labor-market conditions from two months ago. Still, the data provide limited insight into the current and future state of the U.S economy. The gain of 119.000 jobs in September far exceeded economists’ expectations of 50.000 new positions, marking the strongest increase in 5 months. Job creation was concentrated in sectors such as healthcare and education, leisure and hospitality. Nonetheless, there were indications that the third quarter had been a challenging period for job seekers. The latest figures are unlikely to ease divisions within the Federal Reserve, where some policymakers - concerned about inflation - prefer to keep rates unchanged, while others advocate a precautionary rate cut in December to guard against further deterioration in the labor market.

The USD Index rose 0,16% to 100.24, surpassing the six-month high reached in early November, after data showing faster job growth in September strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate-cut cycle in December. Market pricing currently assigns only about a 25% probability to a December rate reduction.

Domestically, the interbank USD/VND exchange rate opened Thursday at 26.370 and gained a further VND 10 during the day, remaining close to the effective ceiling rate of 26.386. The market is expected to trade around 26.350 throughout today’s session.

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