Market Highlight 21.07.2025

    The USD posted its second consecutive weekly gain amid mounting evidence that the U.S Government’s tariff policies are beginning to exert upward pressure on inflation, while Pres-ident Donald Trump continued his public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Shielded from White House interference, the FED’s independence has long served as a critical backstop for both U.S and global financial markets - enabling decisive intervention during the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and other recent econom-ic shocks. Markets are now increasingly concerned that if the FED’s decision-making be-comes more influenced by the executive branch, the institution could lose its ability to act swiftly and credibly in response to financial threats.         This week, investors will closely moni-tor key developments, including U.S Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, and election results in Japan.
According to the latest data released by the General Department of Vietnam Customs, as of July 15, 2025, Vietnam’s total trade turnover reached USD 470,65 billion and is project-ed to surpass USD 500 billion by the end of this month. Of this, export value stood at USD 239,19 billion, marking a 14,7% increase year-on-year (equivalent to a rise of USD 31,94 billion). Imports reached USD 231,45 billion, up 17,7% (an increase of USD 36,08 billion). In the first half of July, the merchandise trade balance posted a slight deficit of USD 130 million.  However, on a cumulative basis through July 15, Vietnam maintained a trade sur-plus of USD 7,74 billion.
  The USD/VND interbank exchange rate edged up by approximately VND 50 (+0,12%) last week, closing Friday at 26.160. VND interbank interest rates cooled notably after the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) actively injected liquidity through the OMO channel during the week. Toward the end of July, rising foreign currency demand for payment settlements may provide support for the exchange rate, with a likely recovery toward the 26.200 level.

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