Market Highlight 20.10.2026

China’s economic growth recovered in Q3, expanding by 4,5%, as booming exports helped partly offset weaker domestic demand. The result was below the Government’s annual growth target of 4,5% - 5%, as Beijing continues to address multiple domestic economic challenges, including high debt, weak consumer confidence, and heavy reliance on exports to support growth. In September, exports rose by more than one-third from a year earlier, with shipments to Europe surging by 25% and exports to the U.S increasing by 40%. China’s trade surplus reached 938 billion USD in the first 9 months of 2026, putting this year’s surplus on track to exceed the record 1,19 trillion USD achieved last year. The Artificial Intelligence boom has strengthened China’s manufacturing momentum, supported by global demand for chips and technology equipment needed to build data centers and expand computing capacity. China has been a major beneficiary of the global build-out of Artificial Intelligence infrastructure.

However, the prolonged downturn in the property market - previously a key driver of China’s economic growth for many years - continues to pose significant challenges to the economy. Real estate investment fell by 20,6% in the first 9 months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. China has introduced a range of measures to support the economy, including credit subsidies, capital injections into state-owned banks, and infrastructure investment, which are likely to help Beijing achieve its growth target this year.

Interbank USD/VND traded around 25.900 yesterday, with an intraday high of 25.920. The SBV lowered the effective daily ceiling to 26.914.

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