Market Highlight 20.09.2024

   The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will conclude its September meeting this morning, with little expectation of any further adjustments to interest rate policy. The market anticipates the key interest rate to remain at 0,25%, following the rate hike in July, which was seen as a major factor behind a sharp market reaction that wiped out $1,1 trillion from the Japanese stock market in just the first three days of August. With the U.S Federal Reserve having finally transitioned to a rate-cutting phase, following other major central banks this past Wednesday, the momentum for a global easing cycle is growing. Thus, the BOJ is unlikely to tighten monetary policy any further, although the market still forecasts a 70% chance of one final rate hike by December this year. The correction trend of the USD/JPY pair is expected to continue toward the 132 - 139 range by the end of this year.

   According to the latest statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the country’s total export turnover for the first half of September (September 1 - 15) reached $14 billion, a decrease of $6,73 billion compared to the latter half of August 2024. This decline in export turnover may partly be attributed to the impact of Typhoon No. 3, which recently affected several provinces and key import-export regions in northern Vietnam, such as Hai Phong and Quang Ninh. From the beginning of the year to September 15, the country’s total export turnover stood at $279,38 billion. On the other hand, imports for the first half of September totaled $14,55 billion, down nearly $3 billion compared to the latter half of August 2024. The national trade balance recorded a deficit of $0,54 billion for the first half of September.

   The USD/VND exchange rate started yesterday trading at around 24.670 before declining by approximately 100 VND to end the day at 24.570. The U.S dollar remains under pressure amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement another 0,5% rate cut in November. The interbank exchange rate is forecast to maintain a downward trend today, trading within the 24.550 - 24.620 range.

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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn