Market Highlight 20.03.2026

On Thursday, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said that global trade flows and economic growth are likely to slow more than previously forecast if elevated energy prices and transport disruptions stemming from a prolonged Middle East conflict persist. However, rising investment in AI-enabling sectors could help offset some of the drag. The late-February U.S - Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iran’s subsequent retaliation, have disrupted energy production and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with no clear sign the conflict will end soon. If these disruptions continue and crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain high throughout 2026, the WTO projects global merchandise trade volumes will rise by only 1,4% this year - down from the 1,9% growth expected before the Iran war. Most of the impact would fall on energy-importing economies in Europe and Asia, as well as the Middle East itself. By contrast, growth could be stronger than anticipated in energy exporters such as the U.S.

The EUR (+1,2%) and the JPY (+1,33%) strengthened against the USD yesterday as major Central Banks opted to keep policy rates unchanged, citing concerns over inflation risks tied to higher oil prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Brent crude rose 1,18% to USD 108,65 per barrel. The USD Index fell by more than 1% to 99,2 by the end of the session, though it remained close to its 10-month high reached late last week.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate continued to trade above 26.300 for a third consecutive day, tracking the USD’s broader strength in global markets. The effective daily ceiling rate was raised by a further VND 5 to 26.325.

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