Market Highlight 20.01.2026

According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, the country’s Gross domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5% in 2025. This outcome met Beijing’s official growth target and matched the actual GDP growth rate of 5% recorded in 2024. Despite forecasts that a trade war with the U.S would weaken the world’s second-largest economy, exports drove China’s economic growth in 2025 to an extent not seen in nearly three decades, even as companies curtailed investment and Chinese consumers tightened their spending. Momentum, however, slowed toward the end of last year, signalling mounting challenges in sustaining the pace of economic growth into 2026. In the fourth quarter, data showed that China’s economy expanded by 4,5% year on year, easing from 4,8% in the third quarter.

Retail sales in China, a key gauge of consumption, rose by 0,9% in December compared with the same period in 2024, down from a 1,3% increase in November and marking the slowest pace of growth since 2022. The property sector continued to weigh on consumer sentiment, as real estate accounts for a substantial share of household wealth in China. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that China’s economy is too large to rely primarily on exports as a growth engine, while also cautioning that the dominance of China’s industrial manufacturing sector risks exacerbating global trade tensions.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate traded mainly within the 26.265 - 26.275 range yesterday as U.S markets were closed for a holiday. The stable trend is expected to persist at the start of this week, as the exchange rate remains short of clear directional catalysts, while markets await U.S inflation data due on Thursday.

Please contact the nearest Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank's branch to receive information and consultancy if you are in need of making any foreign exchange and derivatives transactions.

Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank assumes no responsibility or liability for any purpose of reference or using the information provided by this newsletter.

Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn