Market Highlight 19.10.2026

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh addressed global financial leaders in Bangkok as the world economy continues to adjust to higher energy prices and borrowing costs. Warsh, who is facing persistent domestic inflation pressures, declined to provide a clear signal on whether the Federal Reserve (FED) would raise interest rates at its next meeting later this month. He expressed optimism about the financial performance of the U.S economy and described Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a transformative force for the global economy. In September, FED officials agreed to raise U.S interest rates by 0,25% to a range of 3,75% - 4%. This marked the first increase in 3 years as the U.S faced higher energy prices and rising costs associated with the Artificial Intelligence investment boom. Consumer prices in the world’s largest economy rose by 3,7% YoY in September, accelerating from 3,4% in August.

Preliminary October Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for several major economies will be released this week, providing further insight into activity across the services and manufacturing sectors. However, another consecutive FED rate hike later this month is considered unlikely. Markets currently assign only around a 15% probability of a 0,25% rate increase on 28/10. By contrast, a FED rate hike in December is considered almost certain, while a total of three additional 0,25% rate increases are expected over the next 12 months.

Interbank USD/VND opened lower on Friday at around 25.865, pressured by the weaker USD in global markets and stronger VND liquidity demand in the interbank market. However, renewed buying demand emerged toward the end of the afternoon session, pushing the exchange rate higher to close the day above 25.900.

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