Market Highlight 19.06.2026

U.S retail sales rose more strongly than expected in May, as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles even while facing higher gasoline costs, although the pace of growth may slow in the coming months. Retail sales increased 0,9% last month after April’s gain was revised down to 0,4%, according to the Census Bureau under the U.S Department of Commerce. Together with the recent rebound in job growth, this suggests that the world’s largest economy has remained resilient despite the oil-price shock caused by the war in Iran. Higher gasoline prices contributed to a 3,4% increase in service-station sales in May, accounting for a significant share of last month’s overall retail sales growth. At present, consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S economy, appears to be accelerating again after slowing in Q1/2026. The outlook for Q2 growth was further supported by another Census Bureau report showing a sharp increase in business inventories in April. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised its Q2 GDP growth estimate to 3%, from 2,8% before the data release. The U.S economy had previously grown 1,6% in Q1.

The USD Index rose to its highest level in more than a year on Thursday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged the previous day and signaled that rate hikes may be possible in the coming months. The market is now pricing in an almost certain probability of a FED rate hike in October, while the probability is around 50% for July and 80% for August.

Domestically, interbank USD/VND edged up to near 26.330 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the effective daily ceiling was lowered by VND 2 to 26.431.

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