Market Highlight 18.11.2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is observing signs of cooling in the U.S economy, with fourth-quarter growth likely to fall short of the earlier forecast of +1,9%. However, the lack of data caused by the Government shutdown has limited the ability to accurately assess the health of the U.S economy. The USD Index declined (-0,24%) on Thursday evening after the U.S Government reopened, as markets assessed the impact of the record-long shutdown on confidence in the USD ahead of the resumption of key economic data releases. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said last night that the Government will publish the important October jobs report, although it will not include the unemployment rate, as the household survey could not be conducted during the shutdown period.
The U.S Government reopened yesterday after 43 days of a record-breaking shutdown that disrupted the flow of economic data. In recent days, an increasing number of Federal Reserve policymakers have expressed hesitation about continuing to cut interest rates, citing concerns about U.S inflation, while the absence of labor-market data further complicates policy direction. Market expectations for a further 0,25% rate cut in December have declined to below 50%, from around 70% at the end of last week. This shift triggered a sharp pullback in U.S equities on Thursday, with the S&P 500 falling 1,66% to close at 6.737,49 points. The Nasdaq dropped 2,29% to 22.870,36, while the Dow Jones fell 1,65% to 47.457,22 points.

The interbank USD/VND exchange rate rose to an intraday high of 26,362 on Thursday before easing to 26.358 at the close. The effective daily upper band was 26.381. The market is expected to continue trading steadily around 26.350 today.