Market Highlight 18.07.2025

  The USD rebounded on Tuesday, rising by 0,34% following data that showed retail sales in the United States exceeded expectations in June, while initial jobless claims declined last week. Markets are also assessing the possibility that President Donald Trump may intensify pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign before the end of his term. Despite the recent recovery, the USD Index remains down roughly 9% year-to-date. Key variables being closely monitored in the second half of the year include the economic impact of President Trump’s tariff policies, the fiscal and debt outlook of the U.S, and the Federal Reserve’s ability to maintain its institutional independence. Meanwhile, President Trump announced that letters will be sent in the coming days to 150 additional trade partners - mostly small- and medium-sized economies - outlining proposed import tariffs ranging from 10% to 15%.
  Retail sales in the U.S rebounded more strongly than anticipated in June, although part of the increase may be attributed to higher prices for tariff-affected goods. Specifically, the U.S Department of Commerce reported Tuesday that retail sales rose 0,6% last month after falling 0,9% in May. Inflation data released this week showed that prices for tariff-sensitive items such as furniture, household appliances, sporting goods, and toys surged in June.
  The USD/VND interbank exchange rate briefly dipped to 26.135 on Tuesday before recovering to end the day at 26.155. Recently released figures indicate that remittance inflows into Ho Chi Minh City - typically accounting for 40% to 50% of national remittance volume - reached an estimated USD 5,23 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a modest increase year-on-year. The exchange rate is expected to remain stable today, trading within a range of 26.120 to 26.180.  

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