Market Highlight 18.03.2025

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stated that higher U.S import tariffs will slow global economic growth and push inflation higher worldwide. In its quarterly report released yesterday, the agency lowered growth forecasts for most of the world’s largest economies for this year and next, with the exception of China, Argentina, and Turkey. The U.S economy is now expected to grow by +2,2% in 2025 and +1,6% in 2026, down from the previous projections of +2,4% and +2,1%, respectively. Meanwhile, China’s 2025 growth forecast was revised upward from 4,7% to 4,8%, reflecting expectations that government stimulus programs will offset the impact of higher tariffs on its exports to the U.S.

China’s consumer spending (+4%), investment (+4,1%), and industrial production (+5,9%) all exceeded forecasts in the first two months of the year, signaling a positive recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. In contrast, U.S retail sales in February posted only a modest increase of 0,2%, rebounding from a -1,2% decline in January. However, this data provided little support for the USD, which fell -0,32% last night to 103,4, amid growing concerns over the negative impact of U.S protectionist trade policies on the economy.

The USD/VND interbank rate climbed to nearly 25.550 on Tuesday morning before stabilizing around 25.520 by the end of the trading session. Meanwhile, the central exchange rate increased for the second consecutive day, reaching 24.794, with the effective ceiling rate currently at 26.034. The USD/VND exchange rate is expected to remain above 25.500 today, as foreign currency demand rises again in the second half of March.

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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn