Market Highlight 18.02.2025

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, foreign investment flows in 2025 are expected to shift toward emerging economies such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and India. The global economy in 2025 is likely to face more complex and unpredictable challenges compared to 2024. This is because the current period is not only characterized by military conflicts but also by escalating trade disputes. These developments will have significant impacts on many countries worldwide, including Vietnam, particularly in areas such as trade, currency fluctuations, and foreign investment inflows. Under pressure from U.S tariffs, there is a growing risk that low-cost Chinese goods will flood into Vietnam, creating challenges for domestic manufacturers. Conversely, multinational corporations are expected to relocate their factories to Vietnam to circumvent U.S tariffs on Chinese exports. This could trigger a new wave of supply chain realignment, offering Vietnam an opportunity to attract more FDI, while also introducing considerable risks.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and Philadelphia FED President Patrick Harker stated that recent U.S economic data supports maintaining the current policy rate for the remainder of 2025. Both FOMC members expressed surprise at the January CPI data released last Friday. However, if inflation moderates again, as it did during the winter of last year, the FED remains open to the possibility of an additional rate cut later this year.

The USD/VND exchange rate surged by over 100 VND on the first trading day of the week, closing at 25.480, as corporate demand for USD payments increased significantly in the second half of the month. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) continued to raise the central exchange rate by an additional 15 VND yesterday, bringing the effective ceiling exchange rate for the day to 25.806. The expected trading range for today is projected to be around 25.480 - 25.550.

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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn