Market Highlight 17.06.2026

Global oil prices have fallen sharply on expectations that a U.S - Iran peace agreement will bring an end to the biggest supply disruption in decades. However, energy-sector experts say oil and other commodities critical to the global economy will remain in short supply for weeks, or even months, as vessels reposition, damaged infrastructure is assessed and repaired, and depleted inventories are rebuilt. Even before the agreement is formally signed, crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz had already been recovering steadily in recent weeks. Data show that an average of about 10 vessels per day passed through the strait in the first week of June, still far below the more than 100 vessels per day seen before the war. It may take several weeks for traffic to recover to 30% - 50% of pre-war levels, or roughly 30 to 50 vessels per day. Once shipping volumes begin to recover, it will take another 52 days for the oil to reach buyers in Asia and be refined. Assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of June, the supply shortage will not begin to ease until late August, while a meaningful recovery would only be seen in September.

In the U.S, it is expected to take several months to replenish depleted oil reserves even after the strait reopens. Since late March, the U.S has withdrawn around 66 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, out of the 172 million barrels authorized by the Government, leaving total reserves at only about 243 million barrels, far below the peak of more than 700 million barrels in 2009.

Domestically, interbank USD/VND closed Tuesday at 26.300, edging up by around VND 15. The effective daily ceiling was kept unchanged at 26.423.

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