According to data released by the Government on Thursday, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5% YoY in Q1/2026, accelerating from 4,5% in Q4/2025. Trade continued to play an important role in driving China’s economic growth, with exports surging 22% YoY in January and February. However, export growth slowed sharply to just 2,5% in March, highlighting the risks of relying on external demand as the main engine of the economy. China is in a much stronger position than many other countries to withstand the energy shocks caused by the conflict in the Middle East, thanks to its oil reserves and renewable energy capacity. According to analysis by Citigroup, Chinese manufacturers and farmers have so far faced limited disruption to energy supplies.
Earlier this year, China set its lowest annual growth target in more than three decades, aiming for GDP growth of 4,5% to 5% this year, compared with the “around 5%” target used in recent years. However, a prolonged period of higher energy prices could reduce overall spending in other countries, thereby constraining China’s export capacity and making it harder to achieve its growth target. Without strong support from export growth, the Chinese economy would have very few effective drivers to sustain momentum, as household spending remains weak while the still-unrecovered property market continues to weigh on both consumer and business sentiment.
Domestically, interbank USD/VND traded steadily around 26.225 - 26.335 yesterday, with the effective daily ceiling set at 26.357.
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