Market Highlight 16.09.2026

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday night for the first time since 2023, as policymakers have become less confident that inflation will cool without further FED intervention. Since December 2025, the FED has kept its policy rate unchanged within the 3,5% - 3,75% range, as most members believed that progress in bringing U.S inflation under control had stalled because of temporary factors. However, since the beginning of 2026, the FED has increasingly recognized that a range of factors, including tariffs and the war in Iran, could keep inflation expectations elevated among households. The latest inflation report appears to support a 0,25% rate hike tonight, with the market pricing in a probability of more than 95%, while another hike is also expected in October (40%) or December (50%). This could renew tensions between the FED and U.S President Donald Trump. Over the weekend, Trump reiterated his view that the U.S should have the lowest borrowing costs in the world. The FED Chair’s remarks following the conclusion of the September meeting will be closely watched for any signal that a new rate-hiking cycle by the U.S Central Bank may be beginning.

The USD edged higher against most major currencies on Tuesday as sharply rising oil prices pushed Government bond yields higher and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week. The U.S 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007 at 5,041% on Tuesday night. Global crude oil prices remained close to a four-month high above 105 USD/barrel as tensions in the Middle East showed no signs of easing.

Interbank USD/VND rose to 26.025 early Tuesday before declining to 25.965 by the end of the day. The SBV raised the central rate by a further VND 10 to a record high, corresponding to an effective daily ceiling of 26.897.

Please contact the nearest Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank's branch to receive information and consultancy if you are in need of making any foreign exchange and derivatives transactions.

Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank assumes no responsibility or liability for any purpose of reference or using the information provided by this newsletter.

Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn