Market Highlight 16.07.2025

   U.S inflation climbed to 2,7% last month as the Biden administration’s tariffs have gradually begun to pass through to domestic consumer prices. Prices for furniture, toys, and clothing - product categories typically sensitive to tariff impacts - rose sharply in June. Meanwhile, car prices unexpectedly declined as consumers had accelerated vehicle purchases in previous months to avoid anticipated higher tariffs, leading to weaker demand and lower prices in June. Nevertheless, the latest increase in inflation is not yet viewed as a “worst-case scenario,” as tariffs so far have pushed up prices in only a limited range of goods and have yet to spill over into the services sector. 
  Most economists agree that tariffs tend to push up prices and weigh on GDP growth, but they remain divided over the scale and timing of these effects under President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Many U.S businesses have been stockpiling goods ahead of the tariffs taking effect, which has helped limit price increases heading into the year-end period. According to Goldman Sachs, U.S consumers are expected to bear about 70% of the direct costs of the new tariffs. In recent remarks, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation risks could take longer to materialize and may prove less severe than initially feared. This view leaves open the possibility that the FED could cut interest rates as early as September if the labor market continues to soften or if inflation data comes in more favorable than projected.
The USD Index rose 0,55% overnight following the release of the inflation report. Domestically, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate closed at 26.140 yesterday afternoon, with intraday fluctuations mostly confined to the 26.130 - 26.145 range. The USD/VND exchange rate is expected to maintain its upward momentum early today, likely trending toward the 26.180 - 26.200 band.

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