Market Highlight 16.04.2026

Policymakers at the European Central Bank are leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged in April, as there is still no clear evidence that the inflation shock driven by higher energy prices is spreading more broadly or becoming more severe. Economic data due before the ECB meeting on 29 - 30/4 are unlikely to provide a definitive answer on the extent of the impact that nearly two months of fighting in the Middle East has had on the region’s economic growth. The ECB was widely seen as having reacted rather slowly in 2022, when the war between Ukraine and Russia triggered record-high inflation. At present, war-driven increases in energy costs have pushed inflation in the 21-country bloc up to 2,5% in March, but how long this situation lasts will depend heavily on when the conflict comes to an end. Governments across Europe and the ECB have lowered their economic growth forecasts, while businesses are preparing for weaker customer demand. The market is now pricing in ECB rate hikes as increasingly unavoidable, with expectations of two 25-basis-point increases this year.

The USD Index edged lower on Wednesday as the market assessed the possibility that peace talks between Iran and the U.S could soon resume. U.S crude oil rose 0,13% to 91,39 USD/barrel, while Brent edged up 0,06% on the day to 94,87 USD/barrel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S economy may grow more slowly in Q1 because of the war in Iran, but remains broadly in good shape and is likely to recover gradually.

Domestically, interbank USD/VND fell by VND 5 yesterday and closed the day at 26.335, supported by the continued weakening of the USD in global markets over the past eight sessions. The daily ceiling was also lowered by VND 3 to 26.358.

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