Market Highlight 15.10.2025

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the FED is almost certain to deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut later this month, even as the ongoing U.S Government shutdown significantly dampens the policy’s near-term impact on the economy. Speaking on Tuesday evening at the National Association for Business Economics’ annual meeting, Powell said the U.S economic outlook remains largely unchanged since policymakers last met in September, when the FED reduced interest rates and projected two additional cuts before year-end. The FED Chair repeatedly highlighted the slowing pace of hiring, noting that job growth could weaken further in the months ahead. Market participants now price in a near-100% probability of a rate cut at the FED’s October 29 meeting. Powell acknowledged that the current environment presents an exceptionally difficult policy challenge, as the absence of updated economic data leaves the FED to make decisions without key indicators. The Central Bank’s dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting employment is currently facing opposing forces, with the labor market cooling while inflation remains above the 2% target.  

The USD Index has rebounded roughly 3% since mid-September from its lowest level in over three years, after falling nearly 11% earlier this year. However, analysts note that the dollar’s recent gains are unlikely to persist, as they mainly reflect temporary repositioning factors, including data disruptions caused by the Government shutdown and political turbulence in Japan and the European Union, which have weakened their respective currencies.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate edged slightly higher on Tuesday, closing at 26.355. Meanwhile, the effective ceiling rate for the day stood at 26.369, following the SBV’s 2-VND upward adjustment to the central exchange rate. The interbank market is expected to continue trading within a narrow range around 26.350 today.

Please contact the nearest Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank's branch to receive information and consultancy if you are in need of making any foreign exchange and derivatives transactions.

Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank assumes no responsibility or liability for any purpose of reference or using the information provided by this newsletter.

Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn