Market Highlight 15.07.2026

U.S inflation (CPI) fell to +3,5% in June as pressure from gasoline prices eased. Last month, consumer gasoline prices declined significantly compared with May. Excluding food and energy products, prices were broadly stable, indicating an improvement in the inflation trend. Prices of items such as clothing, used cars, auto insurance, and medical care all declined, while housing costs recorded their smallest increase since 2021. However, oil prices have risen again after the ceasefire agreement with Iran collapsed. This suggests that July CPI may not deliver as many positive signals as June. The market has now sharply reduced expectations that the U.S Central Bank will raise interest rates at its meeting later this month. Before the CPI report, the market had priced in a nearly 40% probability of a rate hike. This figure fell to around 15% after the inflation report was released.

The case for a rate hike in July was based on the premise that U.S inflation was worsening, with overlapping shocks from tariffs, war, and artificial intelligence development having a strong impact on the economy’s price levels. Although one monthly report does not fully resolve these concerns, it has removed the rationale for an immediate rate hike in July and given the FED more time to assess its policy stance. In his remarks before the U.S Congress on Tuesday night, FED Chair Kevin Warsh said that the cooling of inflation in June does not mean the Federal Reserve can be complacent.

The USD Index fell by 0,33% last night after the U.S inflation data, but the decline may only be short-lived as tensions are escalating rapidly in the Middle East. Domestically, interbank USD/VND continued to remain around 26.260 on Tuesday.

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