Market Highlight 15.07.2025

   China’s exports accelerated in June, surpassing market expectations as trade tensions with the United States eased following a round of bilateral negotiations. The General Administration of Customs reported on Monday that outbound shipments rose 5,8% year-on-year last month, an improvement from the 4,8% increase recorded in May. However, exports to the U.S fell by 16,1% in June compared to a year earlier, as higher tariffs and continued uncertainty surrounding the global trade environment continued to weigh on commerce between the world’s two largest economies. Last month, Washington and Beijing reached a limited trade truce, agreeing to roll back most of the tariffs imposed on each other. While still negative, the 16,1% decline marked a significant recovery from the sharper 34,5% drop in May and the 21% decrease seen in April. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) - China’s largest trading partner - rose by 13% in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. Shipments to the European Union, China’s second-largest trading partner comprising 27 member states, climbed 6,6% over the same timeframe. Buoyed by resilient exports and ongoing stimulus measures, China’s economy has remained broadly robust this year. The world’s second-largest economy is projected to expand by 5,2% in the second quarter, following 5,4% growth in the first quarter as businesses accelerated exports in anticipation of higher U.S tariffs.
  The USD/VND interbank exchange rate traded within a narrow band of 26.105 - 26.125 on Monday amid the absence of any clear directional drivers. Both domestic and global markets are now looking ahead to the release of the U.S June inflation report tonight, which will be critical for assessing the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps and the near-term trajectory of the USD. The expected trading range for today is projected at 26.080 - 26.180.

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