Market Highlight 15.07.2024

Global gold prices are on a recovery trajectory and may set a new record high as the market increasingly expects that cooling inflation will eventually lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again for the U.S. economy. Last week, gold prices approached the all-time high set in May at 2.450,07 USD per ounce, following weaker economic data recorded in the U.S. The 16% increase in physical gold prices since the beginning of the year has been supported by strong foreign exchange reserve purchases by global central banks, increased physical gold demand from the public, especially in China, as well as safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's export turnover of goods to the Chinese market in June 2024 reached over 5,14 Billion USD, up 5% compared to the previous month. In the first six months of 2024, it totaled over 27,8 Billion USD, up 7,2% compared to the same period last year. Notably, Vietnam's trade deficit with China was nearly 40 Billion USD, up nearly 68% compared to the same period in 2023, and only 9 Billion USD less than the trade deficit for the whole of 2023 (in 2023, Vietnam had a trade deficit of 49,4 Billion USD with China). China continues to be Vietnam's largest supplier of input goods, accounting for nearly 37,6% of the country's total import turnover in the first six months of the year. It is forecasted that the trade turnover between Vietnam and China in 2024 could approach 200 Billion USD, after reaching nearly 95 Billion USD in the first six months.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate fell to around 25.400 - 25.410 at the end of last week, following the strong weakening of the USD in the global market. The downward pressure on the exchange rate may persist this week as the demand for foreign currency for payments is no longer as high as it was at the beginning of the month. However, the 25.400 level remains a strong support that the market needs to break through at this time.

Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank assumes no responsibility or liability for any purpose of reference or using the information provided by this newsletter.

Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn